COMEDY SERIES
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THE CONTENDERS: The Big Bang Theory; Louie; Modern Family; Orange Is the New Black; Silicon Valley; Veep
SHOULD WIN: Orange Is the New Black
Netflix did a very bold thing submitting Orange Is the New Black under the Comedy Series category, given that it's more often heartbreaking than high-larious. And frankly, it was pretty smart, because Orange would never beat the likes of Breaking Bad or True Detective. But here's the thing. We actually don't care where this show is listed. It deserves to win. Orange has taken every single "rule" we knew about television and flipped it on its head, giving us a truly inventive, expertly crafted and wholly entertaining series. Plus, confession? We really want Orange to win because it is the first show we've seen in forever that makes women love their own flaws, celebrate their differences and also helps society as a whole remember that judging people based on stereotypes or preconceived notions is one of the worst things you can do as a human being. It's actually helping people at home feel better about themselves, and inspiring people to feel more empathy for one another. This is happening on a TV SHOW PRODUCED IN HOLLYWOOD, YOU GUYS.
WILL WIN: Orange Is the New Black
This category is, hands down, the hardest one to call. And full discloure: It's Emmy morning and we just switched over our pick for the winner from Modern Family to Orange, because we just can't imagine a world in which the ATAS would honor Modern Family for a fifth year in a row (snoozeville), rather than listening to all the buzz and the undeniable cool factor of Orange Is the New Black. The dark horse here is probably Veep (the Academy voters love Julia Louis-Dreyfus and anything HBO, and the show has 9 nominations total). But there's this sneaky feeling deep in our gut that Orange will take it home. There is no bigger comedy story of the moment.
DRAMA SERIES
THE CONTENDERS: Breaking Bad; Downton Abbey; Game of Thrones; House of Cards; Mad Men; True Detective
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Breaking Bad
Show me the man who thinks Breaking Bad was anything less than perfect and I'll show you the man whose mother and father never actually conceived him. Everyone loved Breaking Bad. Everyone. Everyone obsessed over Breaking Bad. Everyone. It was the TV story of the past season. Sure, maybe it feels a teensy bit like old news (the finale aired last September), but we just can't see even a strong contender like True Detective knocking Walter White and Co. out of the running. First of all, TD should have been a miniseries (don't get us started), and Breaking Bad sucker punched us with emotional blows all season long, kept us guessing, kept us laughing and crying and feeling, and gave us what we (and you!) believe to be the best series finale of all time, in the history of television. Breaking Bad has won Drama Series only once before, and it deserves to win again for it's perfect, perfect final year. All you other shows? You can go home, get drunk, and play again next year.
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
CONTENDERS: Lena Dunham (Girls); Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie); Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep); Melissa McCarthy (Mike and Molly); Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation); Taylor Schilling (Orange Is the New Black)
SHOULD WIN: Amy Poehler. We have to sit down and take a deep breath every time we go to write this, but Amy Poehler has never won an acting Emmy ever ever ever and it's just so wrong we can't help but write in run-on sentences that never end because we can't even fathom how she can be so brilliant and so funny and even win a freaking Golden Globe and HOST the Golden Globes and write and produce and star in one of the best TV comedies of all time and never have received an Emmy and we can't breathe so we'd better stop talking now.
WILL WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. She's won for times before. She has a total of 16 nominations. She's funny and the Academy, apparently loves her. So JL-D is the one to beat.
DARK HORSE: Taylor Schilling. Orange Is the New Black isn't laugh-out-loud funny (much), but Schilling absolutely slayed us with her season-two performance. And given that OITNB received 12 nominations, and already won three awards, Schilling could squeak by with a win!
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
CONTENDERS: Don Cheadle (House of Lies); Louis C.K. (Louie); Ricky Gervais (Derek); Matt LeBlanc (Episodes); William H. Macy (Shameless); Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
SHOULD WIN: Louis C.K. He pulled in a record number of Emmy nominations last year, including acting, but has yet to win this category. No one works harder than Louis CK, and no one is willing to do the ridiculously awful and embarrassing things that he does on television, all for our entertainment benefit. Give him that statue!
WILL WIN: Jim Parsons. His comedy skills are worth, apparently, $90 million dollars. And while at this point, we can't imagine that another shiny trophy to put on his mantel means much of anything to Parsons (just kidding…not really), he is most likely going to take home another win. His fourth straight win in a row.
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA
THE CONTENDERS: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom (won last year); Matthew McConaughey, True Detective; Kevin Spacey, House of Cards; Woody Harrelson, True Detective
WHO SHOULD WIN: Bryan Cranston
Not only do we have indisuptable proof that Breaking Bad was the best series finale in the history of television—no seriously, you told us that!—but Cranston is arguably the best actor ever to grace the small screen. If he wins this year, it will be his fourth win in a row. And you know what? He deserves that! No one else made us feel as many intense emotions as Bryan Cranston's Walter White this past TV season, so the trophy should be his, to take to his grave. RIP, Walt. Thanks for the memories. And the emotional gut-punches.
WHO WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
Alright, alright, alright. (Why does that never get old?) As much as Cranston's kick-assery is undeniable, we also can't deny the fact that Matthew McConaughey is a huge movie star who did one singular year of TV (which deserves to be honored), and his role on True Detective was pretty much an Emmy reel, front to finish. We get it, Matthew, you CAN ACT! Also, he just won the Oscar earlier this year for Dallas Buyers Club, and surely the Emmy voters would love the attention that would come with having Matthew McConaughey up on that stage, collecting his very first Emmy. True Detective also just won the Casting category, so if there's anyone that even Walter White can't take out, it's this guy.
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
THE CONTENDERS: Claire Danes, Homeland; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Robin Wright, House of Cards; Kerry Washington, Scandal; Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey; Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex
WHO SHOULD WIN AND WHO WILL WIN: Julianna Margulies.
Our fingers have a hard time even working when trying to type out words about the PTSD we are stilll experiencing over the death of [Spoiler Alert…But seriously, do you still not know?] on The Good Wife. Julianna's flawless, even, multi-layered portrayal of Alicia was shockingly shut out of the running last year altogether, and chance are, Emmy voters will right that wrong with a category win. It was The Good Wife's best season yet, and Julianna's best work yet, and she must be recognized. Even if she is on (gasp!) network TV.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
CONTENDERS: Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory); Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
Allison Janney (Mom); Kate Mulgrew (Orange Is the New Black); Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live); Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Allison Janney. CBS' Mom is the most underrated comedy around, and Janney is doing some excellent work, which likely will be rewarded. If she wins, the West Wing vet will take home two Emmys this year. She already won for her gripping and heart-wrenching performance as a guest star on Showtime's Masters of Sex.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
CONTENDERS: Fred Armisen (Portlandia); Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine); Ty Burrell (Modern Family); Adam Driver (Girls); Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family);
Tony Hale (Veep)
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Tony Hale. Loose seal! Loose seal! Sorry, we loved him even more when he only had one arm on Arrested Development, but this category is Tony's to lose, thanks to his hilarious performance on HBO's Veep. He won last year, and pretty much cemented another win when he played a version of his character and held Julia Louis-Dreyfus' purse as she accepted her own award. Perhaps the show's best moment.
DARK HORSE: Andre Braugher
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
THE CONTENDERS: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Joanne Froggart, Downton Abbey; Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
WHO WILL WIN AND WHO SHOULD WIN: Anna Gunn
Anna won her first Emmy last year and she's like to do it again, given that it's Breaking Bad's swan song, and there aren't any bright, new shiny contenders to bump her out of the mix. Plus, her epic final phone conversation with Walter White can't ever be etched out of our memories. So heartbreaking! Next year, Christine Baranski should win, since she never has for The Good Wife. But we'll start bitching and moaning about that then, and celebrate the awesomeness that is Anna Gunn now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Contenders: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad; Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Jon Voight, Ray Donovan; Josh Charles, The Good Wife; Mandy Patinkin, Homeland; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
WHO SHOULD WIN: Josh Charles
Honestly, the guy should win just for keeping the best-kept secret ever in the history of TV spoilers: That his character would, well, you-know-what on The Good Wife. (Seriously, does anyone still not know?!) You might think we're being overly sentimental to put his name in here that he deserves to win, because it's his last chance ever, and because Alicia and Will will never (sob!) get the happy ending they deserve, and well...You'd probably be right. Still, no one is better (or sexier) clearing someone's desk in a fit of rage, and no one evoked more emotions in TV fans this season than one Mr. Josh Charles. So we would love to see him take the stage.
WHO WILL WIN: Aaron Paul
There's a reason he went from being a short-lived guest star to the guy who literally defined what Breaking Bad was ultimately all about (the relationship between his character and Walter White): Aaron Paul is an insanely good actor. All gushing about Josh Charles aside (it's just...that moment when we saw his shoe!), Aaron Paul deserves one final award for his portrayal of Jesse Pinkman and chances are, he will get it.
Check back tomorrow for more predictions!
BEST TV MINI-SERIES
THE CONTENDERS: American Horror Story: Coven; Bonnie and Clyde; Fargo; Luther; Treme; The White Queen
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Fargo
A year ago, if you told us American Horror Story: Coven would be our favorite season yet, and we would still say another miniseries was more deserving, we would have suggested you lock us up in a straight jacket in a padded room. But guess what? Something that crazy has happened to the TV miniseries landscape, and it's FX's Fargo—easily the best surprise of the season. Fargo kept us fully entertained, while flooring us with its stunning cinematography, acting and writing. With a whopping 18 nominations, we expect a Fargo sweep in pretty much every category it is up for, including this one. (We did love Coven, though!)
THE CONTENDERS: American Horror Story: Coven; Bonnie and Clyde; Fargo; Luther; Treme; The White Queen
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Fargo
A year ago, if you told us American Horror Story: Coven would be our favorite season yet, and we would still say another miniseries was more deserving, we would have suggested you lock us up in a straight jacket in a padded room. But guess what? Something that crazy has happened to the TV miniseries landscape, and it's FX's Fargo—easily the best surprise of the season. Fargo kept us fully entertained, while flooring us with its stunning cinematography, acting and writing. W
BEST TV MOVIE
THE CONTENDERS: Killing Kennedy; Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight; The Normal Heart; The Trip to Bountiful; Sherlock: His Last Vow
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: The Normal Heart
Ryan Murphy's deeply emotional biopic, starring Julia Roberts, Matt Bomer and Mark Ruffalo was universally loved by critics and audiences, and we can't imagine any other contender really has a shot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES
THE CONTENDERS: Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven); Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Coven); Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic); Frances Conroy (American Horror Story: Coven); Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart); Allison Tolman (Fargo)
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Allison Tolman
Remember that cool story about the girl who had only done itty-bitty commercials and then got cast on an underdog TV show and beat Julia Freaking Roberts at the Emmys? OK, so in all fairness you don't yet know that story, but you are about to. Allison Tolman beat out hundreds of A List actresses for her starring role in FX's Fargo, making her the overnight success story of the year, and we're putting down good money on her to win her Emmy. We'd also pay good money to see Julia storm out with big shopping bags, quipping "Big Mistake. Huge!" But that's, sadly, far less likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES
THE CONTENDERS: Matt Bomer (The Normal Heart); Martin Freeman (Sherlock: His Last Vow)
Colin Hanks (Fargo); Joe Mantello (The Normal Heart); Alfred Molina (Return to Zero)
Jim Parsons (The Normal Heart)
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Matt Bomer
Given all the hooplah over Matthew McConaughey's weight loss for Dallas Buyers Club (a role for which he won an Oscar), we're guessing that Matt Bomer's physical transformation as an AIDS patient in The Normal Heart also gives him an edge. But it's so much more than that. Anyone who knew and loved Matt Bomer from his previous TV work on White Collar and Chuck expected him to be good in Ryan Murphy's biopic The Normal Heart, but no one expected to be completely blown away. He own this role. He broke our hearts. And no miniseries actor had more resonance with an audience this season.
BEST ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES
THE CONTENDERS: Helena Bonham Carter (Burton and Taylor); Minnie Driver (Return to Zero); Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Coven); Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Coven)
Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful); Kristen Wiig (Spoils of Babylon)
SHOULD WIN: Jessica Lange
We wish Emmy voters could get a highlight reel from all three seasons of American Horror Story to see the deeply disparate characters Jessica Lange has taken on, each time with expert precision. She. Slays. Us. But they're voting only on the current season, Coven, and although we still find her deserving, Jessica is sadly a long shot this year.
WILL WIN: Cicely Tyson
Cicely Tyson already won an acting Tony for this same role—playing Ms. Carrie Watts in Horton Foote's play The Trip to Bountiful—and now she seems destined to do it again for the Lifetime adaption of the 1940s-set story. At 80 years old, she's still a young whipper-snapper compared to Betty White, who set the record for the oldest Emmy winner in 2010.
BEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES
THE CONTENDERS: Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: His Last Vow); Idris Elba (Luther); Chiwetel Ejiofor (Dancing on the Edge); Martin Freeman (Fargo); Mark Ruffalo (The Normal Heart); Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo)
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Billy Bob Thornton
Lorne Malvo. Just the name inspires so many emotions among Fargo fans, as Billy Bob Thornton slayed us with TV's most chilling and jaw-droppingly good performance of the year. 2014 will assuredly mark Billy Bob's comeback, and his first triumphant Emmy win, but of course it also comes with a sense of sadness, as he won't be taking part in Fargo's second season.
VARIETY SERIES
SHOULD WIN: The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon. In his first year as The Tonight Show host, Fallon has surprised us with his amazing skill to make huge A-Listers feel right at home, and completely down to play. Jennifer Lopez in the white-pants dance off makes him worth of the Emmy alone!
WILL WIN: The Colbert Report. Last year, Stephen Colbert shocked everyone (including himself!) when he dethroned Jon Stewart from his 10-year Emmy winning spree. This year, it won't come as any surprise at all, because the episode he submitted is flawless. You know the one in which he announces that his planned summer concert series "Colbchella" is canceled thanks to headliner Daft Punk bailing on Colbert in favor of the VMA's and only giving him a day's notice? We're still laughing.
REALITY COMPETITION SERIES
SHOULD WIN: So You Think You Can Dance
SYTYCD has always been the underdog at the Emmys (and, let's face it, in the ratings), but let the record show: Fans of SYTYCD are more passionate than that of any other reality competition series, and for good reason. It never will win, but oh, how we would love to see a SYTYCD upset.
WILL WIN: The Voice
Only Mark Burnett's genius, and the judge's undeniable chemistry could make a reality competition singing show an actual hit these days. The Voice is a lock to win.
Think you can do a better job at predictions? Tweet me @kristindsantos with your picks and win the ulitmate bragging rights and cool swag. Get the details!