30 Rock
Why It Will Be Nominated: It's 30 Rock, so of course it will be.
Why It Won't: 30 Rock is nearing the end of its run, so there is a slight, slight chance this year the nod will go to someone else, and it'll get a nomination for its final season.
Community
Why It Will Be Nominated: Not only is Community one of the most original comedies on television, but it's been all over the news for the past six months. Any press is good press, ya know?
Why It Won't: Community has never gotten much recognition come awards time, and the voters might want to see what the series is like with new showrunners before giving it any nominations in this category.
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Why It Will Be Nominated: Curb has been showered with so much Emmy love since its first season that another nod in this category will surprise no one.
Why It Won't: Under-the-radar comedies like Happy Endings or freshman series like New Girl might grab Curb's slot away from it.
Girls
Why It Will Be Nominated: This show made a huge splash, both for good reasons (originality) and bad reasons (diversity conspiracy). But the Emmy voters love out-of-the-box comedies, especially in this category
Why It Won't: Will Girls be a one-season wonder? The Academy might want to wait and see before bestowing it with love, and the fact that's a female-centered show will, unfortunately, hurt its chances.
Glee
Why It Will Be Nominated: Glee still gets huge ratings and huge buzz, and everyone is still loving it, hating it, loving to hate it and hating to love it.
Why It Won't: Glee was uneven at best this season, so the Emmys might pass it over for a more consistent comedy.
Happy Endings
Why It Will Be Nominated: Because it was damn funny in its second season, and the buzz surrounding Happy Endings keeps building.
Why It Won't: It's still a bit too under-the-radar for Emmy recognition, so a nod in this category is a stretch this year.
How I Met Your Mother
Why It Will Be Nominated: After seven seasons, HIMYM is still one of the most beloved comedies on television right now, and Neil Patrick Harris being the star of your show never hurts your award chances.
Why It Won't: It's only been nominated once in this category (2009), so unless the voters thought this season was particularly spectacular, expect a nod for NPH in the acting category and that's about it.
Louie
Why It Will Be Nominated: Emmy voters adore both the show and the man. A nomination is almost guaranteed.
Why It Won't: The only reason keeping it from Emmy-nod glory is the new shows swooping in to grab the spot away.
Modern Family
Why It Will Be Nominated: Do we need to explain this one?
Why It Won't: It will be.
New Girl
Why It Will Be Nominated: Both critics and audiences adored this Zooey Deschanel-led Fox show, week after week.
Why It Won't: Freshman network shows have to really fight to get a spot on the list after their first-season run, but New Girl could probably make that happen.
Parks and Recreation
Why It Will Be Nominated: Best comedy on television! Er, in our humble opinion. It was nominated last year, and because this season was another slam-dunk, it probably will be again.
Why It Won't: We could see PRex's spot going to Girls or New Girl this year. And we'll riot.
The Big Bang Theory
Why It Will Be Nominated: Is there any other comedy on television the Academy loves more?
Why It Won't: Fat chance it won't be, but maybe the voters want to diversify this year with newer or under-the-radar comedies.